[Music]
tell us a bit about the pound to the US
dollar relationship it's called the
cable and we discussed earlier on how do
the two work okay well it's a pound
against the dollar the pound is called
the base currency and the dollar is
called the second big currency so if you
get a cut of 1.25 for example it means
that it's 1.25 of the secondary currency
to buy one unit of the base currency
okay and that's how old spot for X is in
fact quoted so in the pound against the
dollar and the Euro against the dollar
the dollar is the secondary currency but
just to make things a little more
difficult against the Swiss franc and
the Japanese yen the dollar is the base
currency so if that dollar is going up
against the Japanese yen the graphs
going up the page but the dollar is
going up against the pound the graph is
going down the page I'm at the retail
level getting that across is quite
something I've been sitting in classes
of aspiring traders that couldn't quite
get that after many many many hours as a
desperate trying to get across I gave up
so that's that's how their quotas and
it's a fairly linear business if you buy
the pound against the dollar if you buy
cable and the chart goes up the page it
means that parent the pound is increased
in value over the dollar if you have bet
that way you make some money if you've
bought the point sold the dollar and the
chart goes down the page when you've
lost some money so there's not like
options where you've got all those Greek
sellers waving at you it's a purely
linear business why is it such a popular
pair for traders because it tends to
brick and brick quite strongly as I said
earlier if the cable had hair her hair
would be red she's got a temper on her
and she can move quite strongly one way
or the other
in the morning in the London morning
it's a big big part of the daily volume
so quite easy even at the institutional
level to get sold quite easily without
any effort in the eastern session the
time against the dollar is a very very
very small part of the trading and many
people feel that when London opens that
it hasn't it got catching up to do and
that's a part of that what's called by
many people the cable morning to it okay
what factors affect the cable well at
the moment of course we've got Britta
brexit and article 50 being titles we've
rallied last week based on those deficit
reduction and construction numbers were
good but the big thing driving of course
would be interest rates and interest
rates in the u.s. probably going to go
up significantly more and significantly
quicker than interest rates here and
that's why the dollar I feel has still
got some more to go against the plan I
wouldn't be at all surprised that if it
got down to 112 to 115 before this is
all over by the way this move means the
kind waves but those people that come to
the deck today's meetings here and in
South Africa
I've been rattling on about the phone
getting down to 115 for the last 10
years because before the crack in 2007
it went up to 210 and it's not made a
perfect five wave advance and that five
we've advanced is nearly finished and by
my numbers which are really right so you
tend to the type it's going to get done
to 112 and then that'll be that low of
the pound for a very long time and this
is quite patriotic in nature but I think
that over the next few years the pound
will be the currency of choice fantastic
things grow and how does the role of
inflation affect
with Khandala how does inflation in fact
it well if inflation stocks and interest
rates start to move up to counteract
that inflation as interest rates move up
then that should in fact be good for any
currency pair so other thing that's
quite useful as purchasing power parity
which is a measure of value of the
currency pair so that I all of that
stuff I do not look at a great deal in
my own personal trading okay I tried to
find a trend and over the last few
months on the a more on the pound
against the dollar on the daily chart
the trend has been down making a series
of falling tops it's below an 89 day
moving average everything you want to
try say is there and then all I'm trying
to do it is to wait for a to rally and
sell it at a good level and that's what
I did yesterday morning I sold as a 62%
no maybe not yesterday morning but a few
days ago at 62% of the level last week
it made a perfect
Wyckoff up trust and that was a really
good trade about 25 old and that was a
300 point trade that was nice if you get
excited when you see the analysis come
into play you sometimes you say things
with it with the sound of satisfaction
or anything when my patterns kick in
yeah they're great they're great yeah
and I don't kill myself in that I traded
for for our chart on mostly yesterday on
the euro dollar there was that perfect
wake up setup on a 30-minute chart and
yesterday morning was Monday morning I
think so I didn't have any meetings on
so I had time to trade my sudden watch
that most of the day three day three
mornings a week I probably do that and I
look I think that the other thing in
terms of self-awareness that we talked
about one of the really most important
things as the timeframe starts to get
smaller knows you start to look at half
our chart
I think one of the most important things
that you can say to yourself do I feel
like doing this today because there's
some days we are just not there
something has happened and somebody's
upset you or something has happened and
you're just not there so being honest
with yourself and saying I'm just not up
to this today is a very very important
part of that self-awareness if you're a
beginner trading on currencies is the
pound and dollar a good one to start on
the potent dollar has been great over
the last month that's because it's been
energy there and it's been moving but
you will get moments where it sits and
does nothing for example in 1996 the
point against the door went across the
page I was like one of those Hospital
programs on the patient we just died it
went across the page at 1.6 for a whole
year and many many big funds who were
trend-following funds they took a hiding
because we're buying selling and buying
and selling buy and selling so I haven't
done a forex course at the retail level
for a very long time but a big big part
of my forex trading course was that what
I call the Forex strength matrix our
relative strength matrix while I look at
the major currency pairs and we'll do
our best by putting a matrix up of
working out where the energy is what's
the strongest currency what's the
weakest currency to try and find a trend
so I think that people will be
successful if they can find a strong
trend in the market at the moment
over the last little while six months
nine months of time against the dollar
has been the place to be that may not
necessarily always be the case so I
think that you need to widen your view
and look at the relationship between
let's say a pound the euro the dollar
the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc
maybe the Canadian dollar runs with oil
and maybe the Aussie dollar as well I'm
trying to find where the biggest trends
are ok and
I think that if the market is trending
strongly on the daily and you look for
an entry on the 4-hour chart then you're
going to find that you get quite lucky
at this if the market is going nowhere
and it's confused running sideways then
you've got to be much more capable to
make a buck okay so find against the
dollar has been great I think that it
still got a long way to go but that may
not necessarily be always be the case
you