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PALANTIR STOCK UPDATE (I WAS WRONG ABOUT PLTR STOCK TODAY)

what's going on guys this is foresight

capital and today i wanted to give a

quick

update on the palantir trade so

yesterday i made a video saying that i

thought palantir might spike on monday

and we ultimately didn't see that price

action play out

because palantir closed relatively

flatly at about

27.24 cents per share which was up just

four cents on the day and in after

market hours we gave back those small

gains

to now be trading at 27 and 10 cents per

share

so in yesterday's video i actually

recreated the entire chart

and most of the price points stayed the

same but what actually click what

actually changed was the tightening of

this wedge that we've been trading

within

so previously the wedge was actually due

to close out somewhere around the late

evening on tuesday or early morning

trading hours on wednesday

after redrawing a line that was more

representative of the actual

trend i believe that the wedge was

ultimately going to close

today or early morning on tuesday so we

should see

some relatively high price volatility

over the coming hours be that high or

low and we did see a bit of a spike this

morning and i kind of wanted to cover

that in today's video

so early morning pre-market hours 4 a.m

through about 9 a.m

eastern standard time in the united

states we saw a palantir's

price spike above the 27.70

semi long term resistance that we've

been trading against for the past

week and a half or so it's been used as

resistance

as far back as december 7th so

about a week ago and then support and

then

multiple times as resistance while we've

been trading in the wedge that we've

been following for the past week

we saw the price spike above this level

for four hours and then when the market

opened

the bulls sort of gave up and the price

faded back down

now there's two ways that you can really

view that

as a trader one is that it could be a

bullish setup because it means that

the bulls are ultimately buying and

willing to push us

above this long-term resistance line

also

due to the hours of trading it could

mean that the institutions the hedge

funds and the other

large investors that are buying very

heavily in the pre-market hours

are the ones that are pushing the price

up and then

once they've made their buys the retail

traders which are

obviously trading with much smaller sums

of money

just weren't as enthusiastic about

buying and the price faded into the

afternoon

so we could start seeing some pumps if

it is institutional investors

in the price because that that tends to

tell us

that with high volume in the morning and

buying action

that it's probably institutional

investors uh

the bear case for this though is that

the retail traders aren't enthusiastic

and they sort of gave up once the market

opened this nine o'clock candle

closed right on the long term support

line

and then in the after mar in the market

open hours we saw the price

close below that line and ultimately

trend right back to this long term

support line that we've drawn

and set on the 50 period moving average

so both of these

are bullish setups as long as we don't

have candles

open and close below this long-term

support line

but it could be viewed as a little bit

bearish that the retail traders may have

just given up on the overall price

action

now there's no real indicator that this

was definitely

institutions buying it could have just

been

large whales trading around the stock in

pre-market hours

but typically when you see that sort of

price action it means that it was

ultimately the institutions

and retail traders giving up so

this wedge is due to close around the

same time in the morning

on tuesday at about 4 a.m

to 6 a.m eastern standard time before

the market hours

open this could be a bullish set up

again because

if institutions come in and push the

price up

above this long-term resistance line and

the price

opens above the long-term resistance

we could ultimately see the stock

continue higher because that would be

two consecutive days of opening above

the resistance line

however if we don't see any major buying

or see the price dip

below this long-term resistance line

that's when we have to start wondering

is the stock going to start fading back

down to this

2460 or 2260 level

in fact i have received a couple of

emails and

comments saying that people don't

believe that i own enough palantir to be

talking about it this much

so i actually had another order filled

and after market hours today of another

200 shares of 27.16 per share

just to put a little bit more of my

money where my mouth is there

and then what i also wanted to talk

about today was

the stock lockup so there's been a lot

of questions and concerns in the

comments about when the lock-up

period is ultimately going to end and

the market could be flooded

with shares so i went ahead and pulled

up a cnbc

article here which is basically stating

that

palantir has indicated that the lock up

period expires

after it reports results for the year

ending december 31st

so the quarter and the fiscal year will

end december 31st

but palantir is not going to report

earnings

for probably until the end of january

to the beginning of february and then i

believe it was a linkedin

article that i found said that it's

going to be three trading days

after the quarterly earning report is

released

so i've had a lot of people in the

comments saying watch out for december

31st it's two weeks away

there's to be a huge sell-off in the

stock and that's just

not going to be the case there could

likely be a sell-off

when the actual lock up ends but it's

not due to happen

on december 31st or even the next day

it's due to happen after earnings are

released

and then there's realistically two ways

that that could ultimately go

and i hate to play both sides of the

fence here but again if i knew

which way palantir was going

consistently i wouldn't make videos i'd

probably just trade hour to hour

so palantir has gone from eight dollars

and ninety cents per share

all the way up to twenty seven dollars

per share

if today were the end of the lock up day

people would be up about 90 about 300

percent

on their shares that could lead to a lot

of people looking to potentially take

profits but there's two ways to think

about that

either people are going to take a very

large portion of their profits

get out if they think the stock isn't

going to go higher

or they'll hold on to the stock if they

think that it's going to go higher

and take maybe a portion of their

profits because you have to think the

people that were given

very large portions of shares either

through profit sharing

or employee stock purchase plans or

whatever they've had

in the past they've got very substantial

gains so there's tax considerations to

dumping all the shares it wants

there's also considerations of whether

or not they need

all the money at once because they've

already tripled their money basically

from ipo

and their cost basis may actually be

substantially less than

dollars and ninety cents per share so

they may not have to sell a considerable

number of shares in order to receive a

considerable amount of money

now all this is speculation but just

different ways to think of the lock-up

period

there are going to be eighty percent of

the overall shares of palantir hitting

the market when the lockup expires

or having the potential to hit the

market but that doesn't mean that

they'll all be sold for one reason or

another whether people just don't need

the money

whether they don't want to take it all

at once and have a huge tax bill

or whether they think the stock is going

to continue appreciating

so how the stock trades into this

particular date

which is as of yet as far as i know

undefined

will ultimately determine how likely we

are to see a major sell-off

if the stock is trading at all-time

highs and it reaches 50 by the end of

the year

or 50 by january whenever the lock-up

period is

i could see people ultimately deciding

to take profits

i could realistically see them deciding

to take profits at 30 but especially if

we get over

extended heading into the end of the

lock-up

now if we head into the lock-up and the

stock has sold off

if we break this long-term trend and we

head back down to the yellow

green or even orange support line of 18

per share there

there may not actually be that much of a

sell-off

don't get it wrong there's definitely

going to be shares that hit the market

there's always going to be people who

are looking to cash out on

some money whenever you have an ipo lock

up period end like this

but it's not going to be i don't think

as detrimental as people think

we'll definitely have to reevaluate as

we get closer but i just kind of wanted

to tackle the date

first and foremost because i've received

some email questions and some comments

in the videos about what i think is

going to happen on december 31st

and i don't think we have to be worrying

about that at this point i think the

most important

thing that we can worry about currently

with the trade is the wedge that we're

trading in

if you believe in the hourly candlestick

chart

or in technical analysis at all though i

believe if you're still watching the

video you probably do

if you want to look at the daily chart

we're still sitting right along

the long term trend and sort of the same

pattern here if we break below that

we're realistically going to head back

down

however we've got it maybe an even more

bullish set up there because we're even

trading above

the nine period moving average and have

used it as support

for the past couple of candles so

realistically we've got a bullish set up

both directions but let me know down in

the comments which way you think that

palantir is going to trade

tomorrow does the wedge even matter are

we going to continue

consolidating or are we going to spike

in price or fall i'm curious to know

your thoughts

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and watching till the end and i'll catch

you in the next one